If we have third-party or independent candidates, it is possible for Obama to have a low- to mid-40s approval rating and win. Nixon ‘68 and Clinton ‘92 each got 43 percent of the vote. Wilson and Lincoln received around 40 percent of the vote in multicandidate fields. The structure of the ballot will matter enormously, depending on whether we have additional candidates and who they are. — Larry Sabato
If he runs as an Independent, as he’s hinted he might, Ron Paul will ensure a second term for Obama.